by Howard Bender

     I've never really been an "I told you so" kind of guy, but after some of the emails I've received this past week, I almost feel as if I have no choice.  For years now, I've preached against taking the top starters too high in your draft;  that there is plenty of quality that can be found in the middle rounds.  With the bulk of your fantasy season riding on your hitters and with the depth that can be found amongst the starters available, your first 4 (and maybe even 5) picks should be used on the best offensive talent available.  "Bulk up on your hitters," I've said.  "Don't let the top 10 ranked starters coming off the board scare you.  There's plenty of pitching to be found later."  So for those of you that didn't listen --- I TOLD YOU SO!!!

     I've seen it all too many times.  Team A has the 8th or 9th pick in the draft and rather than look for a high quality hitter, they turn to the top starter out there.  They make their pick, whether it's Johan Santana or Tim Lincecum or whoever, and then with their wrap around pick they take a hitter;  hopefully someone good, but obviously not one of the top mashers out there.  They then have to wait almost another 20 picks before getting to make another selection.  Other teams have 2 or 3 picks under their belt and they're stacking their offense.  Team A has their top starter, a decent outfielder, maybe, and is now searching for what should be their second best offensive contributor.  Unfortunately, at this point, Team A is already sifting through names outside the top 30 or 40, depending on how many teams are in the league.  The production just isn't going to stand up to the competition's.

     For me, it's a questionable way to build your team.  Pitching may win championships in the real world, but we're talking fantasy and in fantasy, offense dominates.  But let's not even worry about that aspect.  Let's keep harping on the folks out there that feel that taking a starter at the top of the draft is a smart thing.  Who's the genius that lays out this gameplan?  Who's giving you this kind of ridiculous advice?  Have you looked at the numbers and situations for the top 10 ranked starters going into the season?  I have, and it's not pretty.

Pitcher	Record	K's	ERA	WHIP
Johan Santana	3-1	37	0.70	0.90
Tim Lincecum	1-1	35	2.96	1.27
CC Sabathia	1-2	19	4.73	1.39
Brandon Webb	0-0	2	13.50	2.00
Roy Halladay	4-1	32	3.75	1.08
Jake Peavy	2-3	32	5.74	1.47
Cole Hamels	0-2	11	9.69	1.92
Dan Haren	2-3	36	1.54	0.74
Roy Oswalt	0-2	18	3.94	1.38
Josh Beckett	2-1	23	6.00	1.62

     According to CBS Sportsline, Yahoo! and ESPN, these were the top guys coming into this year, and each of them went, on average, somewhere in the first 4 or 5 rounds.  Of these top 10, I'd only list 3 of them -- Santana, Halladay, and Haren -- as guys that have done their job.  Lived up to their draft spot?  I still don't think so, but they've done very well so far.  But what about the others?  7 out of 10 not cutting it? 

     I'll give a pass to Oswalt and Lincecum as both have rebounded strongly from a rough pair of outings to start the season, but each has righted their respective ship.  But what about the other 5?  Were they worth it?  Were they worth passing on a 30 HR outfielder or a 20 HR shortstop?  Have they been worth a top stolen base guy or even just a dude who hits for a .300 average?

     I understand that we're still pretty early in the season.  Hell, we're not even out of April yet.  But the scare that you owners of these clowns are getting right now is real and it could doom your fantasy season.  Some of their problems are not just going to magically go away as the season progresses.

     Webb out for atleast 6 weeks with a muscle problem in his shoulder?  Early spring elbow concerns for Peavy and Hamels?  Sabathia getting right back to where he left off before he was traded to Milwaukee last year?  Beckett serving up 10 walks in his last three starts?  These are all things that you need to be concerned with.  Not only are you going to have to sift throught the waiver wire looking for replacements, but you're also going to deal with falling behind the pack in offensive totals since you sacrificed your hitting to grab these guys.

     Just think of where you could be right now had you just stacked your offense and waited on guys like Zack Greinke or Chad Billingsley.  You could have supplemented them later on in the draft with guys like Josh Johnson, John Danks or Erik Bedard.  Hell, you'd be happy with Joel Pineiro, Kevin Millwood and Jair Jurrjens at this point, I'm sure.

     Pitching is a very hard thing to predict and investing in starters is a very precarious thing.  Yes, injuries occur all over, but the risk that you run with a guy who throws 90+ mph and contorts his arm in the weirdest of ways is much higher, especially when you've sacrificed batting to get it.  I'm not saying you're toast for the rest of the year, but you've definitely dug yourself a hole.  You've definitely got your work cut out for you.  It's going to take some savvy waiver wire pick-ups and some good solid trading to get it done.  Maybe next year, you'll see it a little more clearly.

     For more pitching insights and a look at our Weekly Pitching Report, check out what's going on over at Rotobuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts, or comments you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.