|
Addict Fantasy Sports - Perspectives
|
|
Around the Diamond
Draft Advice -- Notes from the NL West
March 16, 2009 Author: Howard Bender |
|
by Howard Bender San Francico Giants As opposed to some of the teams in rival divisions, the Giants are running into this year with a bagful of arms but no sticks. The pitching looks fantastic, but without a true masher inthe lineup, the runs might be tough to come by. But don't worry, there are still a few surprises in there that can help your fantasy squad out. The Giants have a completely revamped infield that is anchored by catcher and clean up hitter Bengie Molina. I don't know if he can pump out another 90+ RBI season, but he's going to be leaned on heavily. 1B Travis Ishikawa, 3B Pablo Sandoval, and new import SS Edgar Renteria are going to all need to step up their hitting if this team is going ot plate any runs. I expect good things out of Sandoval, but you should check your league's eligibility requirements as he's logged 10+ games behind the dish. The second base competition is still going between Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez and Emanuel Burriss. It looks like Burris might have the edge, but Frandsen isn't too far behind. It seems like Velez and his versatility are going to lock him into a utility role. If Burriss wins the job, he could be a nice source of some cheap steals, although he'll have to do it fromthe bottom of the lineup. The outfield looks exactly the same as it did last year -- Randy Winn and Fred Lewis in the corners with Aaron Rowand patroling center. Despite his age, Winn seems to just keep on going. He'll hit leadoff again and should be good to chuck in 20+ steals. If Lewis' foot problems don't keep him out for any extended time, he too could have some decent speed. Former owners of Rowand will tell you that those numbers from his last year in Philly were ball park exaggerated, so don't expect any kind of big numbers out of him. He's there primarily for his defense. The arms in San Francisco are where it's at. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum leads the way and should put up similar numbers as last year. With the improvements to the bullpen, his win total will probably climb as well. After that, you've got some solid quality in Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. Both should put up solid totals, but expect one of them (probably Sanchez) to get traded sometime around mid-season. If one of them does go to another contender, the ceiling could be pretty high. The back end of the rotation is anchored by the veterans. Giants fans are hoping that Barry Zito will actually earn some of that ridiculous $120+ million dollar contract, and he just might with the focus being off him and expectations at an all time low. Personally, I think Randy Johnson could be the one to watch here. He's coming back home (he's from Livermore) and moves to a park that has been a pitcher's dream. He's taken on the role of mentor for the younger guys and could have a nice little resurgence this season. If he can get 30 starts in, he'll definitely be worth owning in all leagues. The bullpen got some nice middle relief help in Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry. That should be enough to alleviate some pressure off of Brian Wilson. It should also bridge the gap between starter and closer a lot better which shoul dincrease win totals overall. Arizona Diamondbacks Another team loaded with arms, but they do also have some intriguing bats to investigate. Chase Field plays like a nice hitters' park, so even without a masher like Adam Dunn in the middle of the lineup, the team should still put up plenty of runs. My only concern is the pen, but we'll get to that in a bit. Let's start off with the infield for the D-Backs. As it stands right now, 3B Mark Reynolds and SS Stephen Drew with Chad Tracy over at first and newly acquired Felipe Lopez at second. If Drew can pick up his average, he should be a great option at a very thin position. I also think Lopez has the opportunity for Comeback Player of the Year. He was lost in Washington, but made a huge comeback with the Cards last year in the second half. If he can bring that game to the desert, he could be a huge steal. The concern that I have is with Reynolds and Tracy. And you might as well mix LF Conor Jackson in there too. Reynolds may have clubbed the ball, but he not only led all third basemen in errors, but in strikeouts as well. If he doesn't fix the problems, he could get bumped with Tracy moving over to the hot corner, Jackson back to first, and Eric Byrnes taking over in left. It's all highly probable and I don't think the D-Backs would hesitate to make the switch. Jackson is primed for a breakout season at the age of 27, and Byrnes will get the chance to prove he's healthy and ready for full time duty again. If the switch never materializes, then Jackson will remain in the outfield with Chris Young and Justin Upton. Both can be quality bats and big fantasy assets, but they still need some work. Young's average is dogsh*t and Upton needs to stay both healthy and consistent. Both should be worth some late outfield picks though. Before I forget, don't sleep on catcher Chris Snyder. He's another one that could use a BA increase, but he's got some decent pop. Perhaps last season just fell a little short due to the fractured testicle. Both balls are healthy now, so keep him in mind in the later rounds of your draft. The starting pitching here in Arizona is solid at the top and has great potential mized in. Brandon Webb and Danny Haren are top flight guys and both should go fairly early in drafts. With potential injuries to guys like Sabathia and Santana, I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these guys in the top 5 next season. After that, there's upstart fireballer Max Scherzer, newly imported Jon Garland and Doug Davis. I'm not really a fan of Davis, but I like both Scherzer and Garland this year. Scherzer might have his innings kept down as the year progresses, but he's going to have great strikeout numbers with rock solid ratios. Garland, I'm putting a sleeper tag onto. His ratios have been out of whack, but I think the switch to the NL is going to be big for him. Look for his K's to increase while his WHIP and ERA slip back down to respectable fantasy levels. The bullpen is definitely a concern. Right now Chad Qualls is listed as the closer, but it's unclear as to whether or not he can hold the job year round. He's got interesting potential, but with Tony Pena and Jon Rauch lurking, he could be on a short leash. remember, Rauch looked pretty good when he was closing for the Nats. Los Angeles Dodgers Are these the darlings of the NL West? Maybe so with Manny Ramirez returning for another year or two. The battle was long and annoying, but both parties seem to be happy and the Dodgers are looking to continue to build on last year's success. The offense looks just as tough this year as it did in the second half when the Dodgers acquired Manny. Power and speed behind the dish with Russell Martin, budding power at first with James Loney, a solid stick in newly signed Orlando Hudson, speed at short in Rafael Furcal and, well, Casey Blake at third. I don't expect much from Blake, but he could end up losing some time to Blake DeWitt as well. The outfield is solid as well, although I have a major differing opinion than most magazines and "experts". Ramirez is a stud, no question. His knee could be an issue, but it wouldn't stop me from drafting him. Andre Ethier gets the nod over in right field, but I could see Juan Pierre stealing some at bats. And then there's Matt Kemp. Every magazine and web site has him ranked high and is talking about him mashing 30 HR and swiping 40 bases. I have a little problem with that. If you look at Kemp's splits, you'll notice that prior to Manny's arrival he was hitting in the top 3 in the order. After Manny's arrival, he was hitting in the 6 hole. His numbers were rock solid for the first half, but definitely came back down to earth in the second. Now I'm not entirely sure where Joe Torre is going to hit him to start the season, but if he goes with last year's success, then Kemp's hitting 6th and his numbers will drop. Just keep it in mind when people are reaching for him on draft day. The Dodgers' pitching looks lik ewhere the help is most needed. Jonathan Broxton takes over as the closer, and while he found some success there last year, he's never had the job full time. He should be a decent option on draft day, but I would temper my expectations. The rotation looks interesting. Chad Billingsley is recovering from a broken leg in the offseason, but should easily step in as the staff ace. He's a budding superstar and has a great career ahead of him. Hiroki Kuroda is solid and should be much more consistent in his 2nd full season while Clayton Kershaw hopes to build on his success in 2009. He's got fantastic strikeout potential so keep an eye on him in the middle rounds. The back end of the rotation is anchored by Randy Wolf and possibly a returning Jason Schmidt. You always know what to expect from Wolf, so bid accordingly and leave him at the back end of your staff. Schmidt could be an interesting option, but the risk is pretty high. Even if he does find some early success, his innings are going to have to be severely limited so he doesn't break down. Colorado Rockies The standard practice with the Rockies is to draft the hitters and forget the pitchers. Coors Field can do terrible things to ratios, and even in the wake of ball humidors, the practice really shouldn't change. The only problem, is that the hitters may or may not be as appealing as they once were. The departure of Matt Holliday has left a gaping hole in the middle of the Rockies' lineup. They also don't seem to have any kind of real table-setter at the top of the order either. That means traditional sluggers like 3B Garrett Atkins and OF Brad Hawpe could see their overall production drop. We're pretty much going to have to take a wait and see approach when the lineup gets solidified. Clint Barmes could see some time at the top, along with CF Ryan Spilborghs. Both could end up being decent options, although my favorite is Dexter Fowler. Unfortunaltely, with the Rockies still trying to find a spot for Ian Stewart, Fowler, a blinding speedster, will probably start off in the minors. Returning from injury is SS Troy Tulowitzki who has 20 HR potential, but needs to stay healthy this year to dispel any concerns about his sophomore season. And one of my favorites is catcher Chris Ianetta. He had a solid year last season taking over full time duties and is blossoming into one of the better players at his position. As for the rotation, Ubaldo Jimenez looks like the only guy I would touch, and even he's a risk. Aaron Cook is pretty predictable and Jorge de la Rosa is nothing special. You Jason Marquis fans need to step up and take notice. His ratios weren't great to begin with, so putting him in Colorado is just a recipe for disaster. The bullpen competition sits between Manny Corpas and Huston Street. It looks like Corpas has the edge right now since Street has been hurt most of the spring and has subsequently gotten rocked in his return. But with Street's experience, don't count him out. Unfortunately, manager Clint Hurdle could just ride the hot hand. San Diego Padres Welcome to the basement. I won't even pretend to like this squad at all, and finding fantasy gold is pretty tough once you get past 1B Adrian Gonzalez and SPs Jake Peavy and Chris Young. This team has problems, pure and simple, and if you're trying to build a winning fantasy team, you should be looking elsewhere. Lets start with the infield. Gonzalez is a pure hitter and I love him. My only wish would be for either a new team or better protection. He turns 27 this year and should continue his ascension in the rankings. Just don't be surprised if most of his HR are solo shots. Afte rthat, you've got light hitting 2B David Eckstein, even lighter hitting SS Luis Rodriguez and the always disappointing Kevin Kouzmanoff. Don't expect much out of the middle infield, and be careful with the Mashing Macedonian at third. He's coming off of November shoulder surgery and is just starting to play the field now. You also have catcher Nick Hundley, but the rookie only has moderate power and will probably lose plenty of time to Henry Blanco. In the outfield, there's prospect Chase Headley who had a decent debut last year, along with Jody Gerut and Brian Giles. Headley could be an interesting option, but the other two I would leave alone. Giles isn't the player he once was and Gerut has had like 6 reconstructive knee surgeries in the last few years. You're taking a big time risk with him. As I said with pitching, Peavy and Young are the two to watch. Both should have decent seasons and be worth their picks. The rest of the rotation is pretty shakey with Cha Seung Baek, Kevin Correia and Josh Greer. The only one I might try out is Baek, but not until the very end of the draft. First time closer Heath Bell takes over for the departed Trevor Hoffman. He's got the intensity and the heat to close, but we'll have to see where he goes with that pudgy little body. He reminds me of Mike Fetters. Remember him? For top quality player rankings, position tiers, cheat sheets and fantasy insights, take a little trip over to Rotobuzz.com. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues. For questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.
Copyright © 1999-2008 Addict Fantasy
Sports™. All Rights Reserved
|
| Click here to return to Addict Fantasy Sports |