by Howard Bender

Milwaukee Brewers

With the departures of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the Brewers are looking like all stick and no arms this year.  The fact that Miller Park plays as nicely for hitters as it does was enough of a deterrent for me, but now, you don't have anyone with even a decent pedigree.  My suggestion, if you feel the need for members of the Brew Crew, is to steer clear of the rotaion and concentrate on the hitters.

Let's start off with the no-brainers here.  Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should be taken pretty early in drafts and neither will disappoint.  Braun is as steady as they come, and while we may not see the 50 homers from the little Prince again, he's still going to mash with the best of them.  Their place in the middle of the lineup is also going to help all those around them.

The infield looks the same as always.  Rickie Weeks and all of his potential stay at second, but for how long is anyone's guess.  I don't care how much potential we're ever looking at...if you can't stay healthy, then you're as useless as they come.  I have a hard time thinking this year is going to be any different.  The competition at third is looking less and less liek a competition.  Matt Gamel has been filling in for the injured Bill Hall, but hasn't looked good at all this spring.  Expect Hall to come back towards the end of the month and take over for Opening Day.  Careful though.  He's an average killer and really only gives you around 15 dingers.

The one to watch, i think, is J.J. Hardy.  I always like this kid when he first came around but injuries put me off him early on.  But these last 2 years, he's been incredibly solid posting 20+ HR with an average in the high .270's/low .280's.  He turns that magical age of 27 this year and word is that he'll be hitting in the 2 hole all season where he hit .294 with 21 of his homers last year.  I smell a breakout.

Joining Braun in the outfield are Mike Cameron and Corey Hart.  Cameron's always a tough call, because while his power is solid, his average isn't, and neither is his health.  Chris Duffy could be seeing a little more playing time this year given Cameron's history.  Now Hart, on the other hand, could continue to be a solid pick.  He's gone 20-20 the last 2 seasons, and doesn't look to be slowing down.  He'll go higher this year in drafts, but if you have the chance to grab him in the middle rounds, don't hesitate.

As I said before, the pitching staff is not high on my list.  Jeff Suppan leads the charge, but to me, he's still middle of the rotation, journeyman quality.  He'll easily be available in the later rounds of your draft.  Supposedly stepping into the number two slot is the highly regarded, oft-injured Yovanni Gallardo.  People seem to be super high on his strikeout potential, but he's had a problem staying healthy.  He's also not looking too good this spring.  Someone in your league will be singing his praises.  Let that someone be the guy crying from 8th place at the end of the year.

As for the rest of the staff, Manny Parra (a.k.a. Prince's Punching Bag), Dave Bush and Braden Looper are all late round picks.  I don't see any of them doin gmuch to dazzle you this year.  And Trevor Hoffman?  I think we're looking at the beginning of the end with the move from Petco to Miller Park.

Houston Astros

Here's another squad that looks ok on the hitting, but light on the pitching.  These aren't the days of Bagwell and Biggio, but there's still a few familiar faces that will help juice your fantasy team. 

The first two Astros off the board will be Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman.  Even with missing almost two full months towards the end with a broken pinkie, Lee still managed to club 28 HR with 100 RBI.  Expect a nice rebound this year and enjoy the numbers.  Berkman, ont he other hand, I'm not sold on.  His .312 average and 18 SB were huge for a first baseman, but we've also seen a steady decline in his power the last 2 years.  What's worse, is that he's been complaining of shoulder soreness this spring.  Draft with caution.

The rest of the infield seems a little rough.  I like Kaz Matsui over at second base and hitting leadoff, although I don't see him staying there all year.  He's got decent speed, but it's more 20-30 SB than the 40+ you'd like to see.  SS Miguel Tejada is just a shell of the player he once was, and the tandem of Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone at third could be equally disappointing.  And lastly, the duo of Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles is definitely going to struggle.  Quintero is really more suited for back-up duty, and Towles is looking as bad this spring as he did last season.

The outfield has a lot more promise.  Hunter Pence should find some sort of a happy middle ground for his batting average -- say somewhere in the .280's -- and still has 25 HR potential.  Add the dozen SBs he can kick you, and that's a pretty decent middle round selection.  But Michael Bourn is again, the guy I'm watching.  He'll definitely need to bring up that horrific average and even more atrocious OBP, but if he can, then he should be back to the leadoff spot by mid-season.  Even hitting lower in the lineup though, he should be good for 40+ stolen bases.

Just like Milwaukee, I'm not a huge fan of the Astros pitching.  Jose Valverde should stay a decent closer, but he needs to work on those ratios and the 7 blown saves from last year.  Still, you'll be able to rely on him for the 30+ saves you need from your closer.

Roy Oswalt leads the rotation, and remains the ace of the staff.  His ERA has crept up the last 2 years, but he still remains a solid option for 170 K's, 15 wins and an ERA around 3.30.  After that, the rotation is just gross.  Wandy Rodriguez?  Brian Moehler?  A banged up Brandon Backe?  How about comebacks from Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz?  Stay away.  If you have any regard for the WHIP and ERA categories, stay away.

St. Louis Cardinals

Another weak pitching NL Central team, but this time, the hitting is just as suspect.  You've got one rock solid option, and after that, it's up for grabs.  You have some pretty good potential, but if you're looking for bona fide fantasy studs, you could be in trouble.

The obvious is Albert Pujols -- a no-brainer first round selection.  His elbow seems to be fine and there's no reason to expect anything less than the 35-40 HR with 100+ RBI and an average hovering somewhere in the .320's.  With A-Rod missing the first month or so of the season, expect Pujols to be the lock #2 pick behind Hanley Ramirez.

As for the rest of the Cardinals infield, there's definitely some potential, but it comes with plenty of risk.  Skip Schumaker looks like he's got the job at second, but his errors this spring are probably making management wonder.  Brendan Ryan isn't much of an option, but if Skip doesn't get his defense down, they could look for some veteran help.  Khalil Greene takes over at short this year, and while he's got some really nice power potential, he's another one of those "can't stay healthy" boys.  How many times is he going to break his fingers?

Yadier Molina continues to work behind the dish, but he's there for his defense.  He's a very low end fantasy option, in my opinion.  And finally, there's the hot corner.  With Troy Glaus out for an Achilles tendon problem, it appears that Joe Mather has won the job this spring.  He's got decent pop and could be a nice sleeper if he can keep his average up.  Unfortuantely, the club will probably opt for Glaus come May.

The outfield has some decent promise.  Ryan Ludwick will try to build on last year's "come from outta nowhere" success, but I don't see a repeat for him at all.  He was a late bloomer who peaked and had a great year, but I think 30+ HRs is a reach.  I'm thinking closer to 25 this season.  Rick Ankiel stays in center and should continue right about where he was last year.  Figure mid 20's HR with a .270 average.

Rounding out the outfield is the competition between Colby Rasmus and Chris Duncan.  The job seemed to belong to Rasmus with his hot start this spring, but he's been sidelined lately with a hamstring issue while Duncan has turned on the jets and has been raking the ball lately.  I see the job staying with Rasmus for the start of the year and he could develop into a real nice late round pick up.

The pitching staff in St. Louis is definitely a concern.  Adam Wainwright can definitely build on his success, but is really nothing more than a middle to late round starter.  Chris Carpenter is trying to make a comeback from yet another surgery while Todd Wellenmeyer, Kyle Lohse, and Joel Pineiro round out the top 5.  Wellenmeyer has great strikeout potential, but I just don't know how trustworthy these guys are going to be for the long haul.

The bullpen is equally, if not more disastrous.  Right now the competition to close is between Ryan Franklin and Chris Perez.  Neither is really distancing himself from the other this spring, and we're probably headed for the dreaded closer-by-committee.  I'd go with Perez as my choice, but if you need saves, you can't take one without the other.

Chicago Cubs

There's definitely an interesting mix of players here, and fantasy-wise, you can be quite successful.  There are quality bats to choose from, and if you're into the risk/reward thing, there are some arms you'll probably want to take a look at. 

For starters, let's welcome back some quality fantasy players that you'll probably be looking for come draft day.  Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto should continue to make his way to the top of the catchers' list while Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano will also remain early round selections.  Sure, they're not in their prime anyomore, but all three should post high quality stats for you this season.

The middle infield is a little questionable.  Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot are really there for their defense, and shouldn't be considered too heavily until the later rounds of your draft.  They won't hurt you, stats wise, but they're not contributing much either.  Consider them to be hole-fillers if you're bulking up elsewhere.

With Soriano, you've got Milton Bradley and the platoon of Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson in the outfield.  Bradley will be hard pressed to repeat last season's surge but, if healthy, can still post you some solid numbers.  Unfortunately, that's a real big "if".  As for Fukudome and Johsnon, neither will be worth very much so long as they're splitting time.  Grab them in the late rounds and hope one of them starts to out-shine the other.

Like I said before, the pitching is risk/reward here.  Both Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano can light it up, but both have health concerns.  I'd definitely take Harden before the Big Z though, as the mental make-up is a little more stable.  If Harden can stay off the DL, a Cy Young season is possible.  The rest of the staff, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall are all solid middle of the rotation guys.  I'd be surprised to see Dempster repeat last year's success, but all three should be valuable innings-eaters for your staff.

The bullpen looks pretty good over here as well, but there could be a glitch.  Carlos Marmol is everyone's call for closing duties, but don't rule out Kevin Gregg just yet.  Pinella loves the fact that Marmol can go more than one inning and can get ready at the drop of a hat.  If Gregg can string together a few good outings, he just might throw a fly into the ointment.  But as it stands now, draft marmol with confidence.

Cincinnati Reds

If only the Reds could just harness all this potential and come up with a better finish in the second half of a season.  They have tremendous young talent, and with the right leadership, they could be a powerhouse for years to come.  As for fantasy, they've got quite the selection for you.

In the infield, you have some rock solid options with Joey Votto at first and Brandon Phillips at second.  Both shoul dgo in the early to middle rounds of your draft and each should produce top flight fantasy numbers.  Phillips is a 20-20 guy while Votto's power is just developing.  Alex Gonzalez at short is still a bit of a question mark, health wise, so watch him all spring and see.  Jeff Keppinger could steal some time from him.  Edwin Encarnacion has great potential but has been incredibly inconsistent.  Couple that with a wrist injury this spring and you coul dbe looking at a very late round steal.  I see him having a good season.  And finally, there's Ramon Hernandez behind the plate.  Maybe not a great year, but as a mid-level catcher, he's not so bad.

The outfield has some very intriguing options.  Will Willy Taveras steal 60 bases again?  Probably not, but he's a lock for the leadoff spot and should be running just as much this year.  Chris Dickerson is turning into everyone's sleeper darling, but I'm still not convinced.  He hasn't shown huge power or huge speed, but could just be a nice late round fill in that contributes just enough to make you happy.  And then there's Jay Bruce.  He's my boy!  I love him and I think he's going to continue his development and bust out.  His debut was a huge success last year and if he can improve that average and his trouble with lefties, he's going to be HUGE.

The rotation may not be as strong as it was last year, but these guys now have the experience to build on.  Edinson Volquez is a strikeout machine and Johnny Cueto, if more consistent, could be right behind him.  I think Aaron Harang will rebound this year and Bronson Arroyo is serviceable.

The battle to watch though, is the fifth starters spot.  Both Micah Owings and Homer Bailey have looked sharp this spring and the battle could come down to the wire.  The Reds may even think about a 6 man rotation, but that's highly unlikely.  I wouldn't mind seeing a trade of either Arroyo or Harang so that we can get both these arms in the rotation.

The closers' role is still with Francisco Cordero, although I am not a fan at all.  His ratios are always too high and he's just not trustworthy.  Remember, he lost his job in Texas and then got it back once he moved to the NL.  But hitters are onto him, and that's never good.  Couple that with his injuries this spring, and we could be seeing a little more of David Weathers than we'd like.

For draft prep, updated player rankings and position tiers, and general fantasy advice and insights, check out Rotobuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts or comments you can write to him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.