The Chase begins with Kyle Busch in the lead followed closely by Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. These 3 drivers have won the last 9 races each accumulating 3 wins over that stretch. The rest of the Chase field is really going to have to step it up to stay in contention starting this weekend in New Hampshire.

            Only 4 of the other 9 drivers in the Chase have a win this season while the last 5 are still looking for their first trip to victory lane. It’s hard to believe that Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick have not won a race yet this year but they are all in the Chase and now is the time to turn their season around.

            My pick to win the first race of the Chase and move into contention is Denny Hamlin. Denny has only run 5 races at Loudon and has a win and 4 top 10 finishes. His worst finish has been 15^th which means that he keeps himself in the race to compete at the end.

            Jimmie Johnson is hot right now winning the last 2 races and setting himself up to defend his title. Jimmie has 5 top 10 finishes in his last 6 New Hampshire starts and has finished in the top 15 in all but 1 of his 13 races here including sweeping the races in 2003.

            Kyle Busch has a win and 3 top 5 finishes here over the course of 7 races. However, he has also finished 25^th or worse 3 times also. His inconsistency here over the years leaves the door open for other teams to close the gap on him this weekend.

            Carl Edwards has only finished in the top 10 once over 8 races during his career. His worst finish is 20^th though which means that he stays out of trouble but never has a car good enough to compete with those contending for the win.

            Three of the Chase drivers without a win this season have a shot at getting it here on Sunday. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth all have legitimate shots at going to victory lane if everything works out for them.

            Tony Stewart has 10 top 5 finishes during his career here including 2 wins and 3 runner-up finishes and came close to beating Jimmie Johnson last week on a similar track at Richmond.

            Jeff Gordon has finished 3^rd, 2^nd, 2^nd and 11^th in his last 4 starts at Loudon. This team has struggled almost all year and this week is time for them to step up if they want to compete for another championship. The teams without a win really have nothing to lose heading into the Chase so you might see them using a lot of different strategies to get them in position to win races.

            Matt Kenseth has 10 top 10 finishes in his last 12 starts at New Hampshire but hasn’t visited victory lane here during his career. Matt is one of those drivers that you don’t hear a lot about during the race and then at the end everyone wonders where he came from.

            Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton have an outside chance of winning this weekend. I’m not sure if these teams have what it takes to win but they have very good shots at coming away with top 10 finishes and keeping themselves in the hunt.

            Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been a bit inconsistent at Loudon with more finishes outside the top 15 than in it. Being on the Hendrick team should help his cause because he can get a lot of help from Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon this weekend.

            Of the non-chase drivers who have a chance this weekend I like Martin Truex Jr. Martin has finished in the top 5 in his last 3 starts here and the DEI teams seem to be better on the short flat tracks this year.

            Yahoo Picks for Loudon

            Group A

            Denny Hamlin (starter)

            Jimmie Johnson

            Group B

            Martin Truex Jr. (starter)

            Ryan Newman (starter)

            Kasey Kahne

            Bobby Labonte

            Group C

            David Reutimann (starter)

            Brian Vickers

            Top 5 Overall at Loudon

1.      Denny Hamlin

2.      Jimmie Johnson

3.      Tony Stewart

4.      Martin Truex Jr.

5.      Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

As always you can Email me with any questions, comments or suggestions at gutsamaniac@hotmail.com. Good luck once again this weekend and let the Chase begin!