Addict Fantasy Sports™ - Perspectives
www.addictfantasysports.com
March 22, 2008
Author: Antonino Buccellato
By John Arias. With the start of the season under way next week, it is crucial to play the right players from the start. Each week I will provide analysis of players on the pose of having a good fantasy week. Here are my picks to deliver in week one...
START'em
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Now in his third season in the majors, King Felix is scheduled to pitch two games in week one. He will face the Texas Rangers at home and travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles. Last year at home Hernandez was 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 17 games. In two starts last year against the Rangers, he was 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA. In 14 2/3 innings he had 15 strikeouts and held the Rangers team to a .137 batting average. On the road last year, Hernandez won 8 games and held opponents to a .266 batting average. The Orioles were 9th in the A.L. in runs scored and ranked 11th in home runs. He should finish the week with great fantasy numbers.
John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves: At age 41, the veteran does not seem to be slowing down. He finished last season with 14 wins and ended the year 7th in the N.L. with a 3.10 ERA. He pitched over 200 innings and had 197 strikeouts. He will be another two-start pitcher in the opening week. He has a favorable schedule pitching in Washington and facing the Mets at home. John Smotlz[Smoltz] has a career record of 17-14 with a 3.42 ERA against the Mets. Last year against the Nationals, despite his record of 3-2, Smoltz had in five games an ERA of 1.93 and held the Nationals to a .173 batting average. He should definitely be in your starting lineup for week one.
Eric Bedard, Seattle Mariners:
Moving to the A.L. West, Bedard will have a chance in week one to face his old team. He will pitch at home against Texas and travel to Baltimore. He will open up for his new team against the Texas Rangers. Last year in two starts he was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA. In only 16 innings, Bedard managed to strikeout 26 hitters. Despite playing in Camden Yards last year Bedard did well. He was only 5-4 but had an ERA of 2.81. He held opponents to a .209 average in 15 starts. With the motivation to beat his old team and his career success against the Rangers, Bedard is a must start for week one.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals:
He had a rough start to the season but was able to bounce back in the second half. He starts 2008 as a very reliable member of any fantasy rotation. In week one, he will have the chance to start twice. In the second half of the season, Wainwright was one of the top pitchers in baseball. In his last 15 starts he compiled an ERA of 2.71. He ended the season strong and was able to win 14 games. He will face Colorado and Washington at home and should end week one as a fantasy stud.
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers:
He has had a fabulous spring and looks to continue his torrid pace in week one. It is transition season for the Rangers and at age 27, Hamilton might have just found a home. Last year in Cincinnati, in only 298 (AB) he had 19 home runs with 47 RBIs and hit .292. Translate those numbers into a full season, he would have easily had over 40 home runs and over 120 RBIs. One of my favorite sleeper candidates coming into 2008, he should reward those who drafted by having a great year.
Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers:
Last year was supposed to be his breakout year. He started off well by going 9-1 with a 3.69 ERA. After the All-Star break it all came crashing down for Bonderman and his fantasy owners. He finished 11-9 with a 5.01 ERA. In week one, he will face a familiar team that he has had success against. In week 1, Bonderman will face the Kansas City Royals, who he dominated in 2007. He was 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in 3 starts. He only allowed 4 earned runs in 20 innings pitched and held the Royals to a .211 batting average. In his career, Bonderman is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 19 games against the Royals. Expect him to start the season strong with a win in week one.
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers:
He started the season in the bullpen in 2007 but was able to come in and fill in admirably for the Dodgers. He ended the season with a record of 12-5 with a 3.30 ERA. In week one, he will be facing the San Diego Padres. In 6 starts last season, Billingsley was 4-0 with an eye popping 1.05 ERA. In 25 2/3 innings pitched he only gave up 3 earned runs, while holding the Padres to a .185 batting average. The game will be in San Diego where Billingsley excels. On the road last season he was 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Compare that with his home numbers (4-2 with a 4.24 ERA) he needs to be in everyone’s fantasy lineup.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
He had a stellar start to his career but injuries slowed him down in 2007. Despite the setbacks Weaver had a good year. He finished with 13 wins and looks to build in 2008. He will be facing the Minnesota Twins on the road in week one, but it should not affect him. In 3 starts last season, Weaver was 2-0 against the Twins and had a 2.11 ERA. He held the Twins to a .200 batting average and only surrendered 5 runs in 21 1/3 innings pitched. He is a must-start for week one.
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers:
Set career highs in average, RBI’s, runs, hits, OBP and would have won the A.L. MVP but Alex Rodriquez had an unbelievable year. Even though years of injury have plagued this 34-year old, he is among the best outfield options in fantasy baseball. He will be playing against the Royals in week one. Last year against the Royals in 18 games he hit .385 and had 2 home runs and 13 RBIs. He slugged .600 and had an on-base percentage of .406. He is a must-start for week one.
SIT'em
... And here are the ones posed to fail in week one.
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians:
He had an outstanding season last year in his first year as a starter, and he set career highs in wins, ERA and strikeouts. The only team that he had trouble against was the Chicago White Sox. In week one, he will be facing the Sox. Last year in three starts he was 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA. He allowed 12 runs in only 17 1/3 innings pitched. In 7 career games against the White Sox he is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA. He should be someone that fantasy owners may want to sit out if they have a better option for week 1.
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs:
After signing a huge contract, he ended 2007 with a 15-8 record and a respectable 3.83 ERA. He will be pitching against Milwaukee in week one and the Brewers are one team that Lilly did not have success against. In 3 starts last season, Lilly was 1-1 but had a ERA of 5.29. He gave up 4 home runs to Milwaukee in only 17 innings pitched and managed to strikeout 11 hitters. Look for a better option in week one for any owners of Ted Lilly.
Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates:
A surprise in 2007, Gorzelanny ended the season with 14 wins on an awful Pirates team. He started the season strong but began to fade in the second half of the season. Before the All-Star break, he was 9-4 with a 3.10 ERA. In the second half he began a downward spiral. After the break he was 5-6 but posted a 5.01 ERA. In week one, he will face the Atlanta Braves on the road. In his only career start he has a record of no decision but an ERA of 6.00. Look for another option for week one.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox:
Looking to rebound from a disappointing season, Buerhle will face a tough opponent in week one. He will go on the road to face the Cleveland Indians and ace C.C. Sabathia. In 29 career games, Buerhle is 8-11 with a 4.61 ERA. Last year he allowed 25 hits in only 18 2/3 innings pitched against the Indians and the Indians as a team hit .313 against him. Because of his history against the Indians and the fact that he will pitch against C.C. Sabathia, Mark Buerhle should not start in week one.
Jon Garland, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
After winning 18 games in 2005 and 2006, Garland only won 10 games in 2007. He is now on a different team and is entering a contract year. In week one he will be facing the Minnesota Twins. Last year in three starts against the Twins he was 0-2 with an ERA of 9.35. He allowed more earned runs (18) than innings pitched (17 1/3.) For his career Garland is 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA in 26 games against the Twins. He should not be in anyone’s starting lineup for week one.
Joakim Soria Kansas City Royals:
Soria emerged under the radar as one of the best breakout closers in baseball last season. The 23-year old ended the season 2-3 with a 2.47 ERA. He had 17 saves and struck out 75 hitters in only 69 innings pitched. He had a great WHIP of 0.94 and held opponents to a .187 average. Unfortunately, he plays on the Royals, yet it should not stop anyone from drafting him. The Royals will face the Tigers and Twins on the road to start the season. The Royals will be hard pressed for victories on week one. Soria can make an impact in 2008, but pitching for the Royals do not expect him to have over 30 saves. Draft him after the elite closers are gone and do not start him in week 1.
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants:
At the time he signed his contract it was the biggest amount ever given to a pitcher in Major League history. He rewarded the Giants 11 wins versus 13 defeats and had a robust ERA of 4.55. In 2008, Zito looks to bounce back to his early form as an Oakland Athletic. He will face the Dodgers at home in his first start and he does not have a good history against the Giants’ bitter enemy. Last year in four starts he went 2-2 with an ERA of 4.91. Once a fantasy star, Barry Zito can no longer be trusted. Also, Brad Penny will be the opposing pitcher and look for Penny to get the win, not Zito.
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates:
Despite playing for the Pirates, Snell had a successful year. He finished 2007 with 9 victories and had an ERA of 3.76 which ranked 13th in the National League. He is on the verge of a breakout year, but do not expect him to do well in week one. He will be facing the Atlanta Braves and Snell struggled against them in ‘07. In five career starts, Snell has a record of 1-2 with a 4.73 ERA. Look for him to sit on the bench for week one.
Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox:
Konerko ended 2007 with 31 home runs and 90 RBIs. A reliable option for power production, he will face a tough Cleveland and Detroit rotation in week one. Last year against the Indians in 17 games he only hit .237 and scored 6 runs. Against the Tigers he did worse: he hit .217 in 17 games and only hit 2 home runs in 70 at-bats. Look for minimal production at best in week one for Konerko’s owners.