Around the Diamond

It's All in the Hits

 by Howard Bender   

     I can hear Chubbs Peterson's faint little whisper in my head as he sways Happy Gilmore back and forth.  "It's all in the hips.  It's all in the hips."  Say it with me...you know you want to.  "It's all in the hips.  It's all in the hips."  Now let's spin that and apply it to some fantasy baseball, shall we?

     I've received quite a number of emails in the last week regarding by last article.  Starting pitching afficianados have come from all over to tell me how wrong I am about passing over guys like Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana or Roy Halladay in favor of whomever remains the top hitter on the board.  Cries of "security in an ace" have flooded my email along with number quotes from struggling hitters that normally grace the top 20 on Draft Day.  One guy (I'm looking in your direction, K.G.) told me to do a comparison of the Top 25 hitters and see how they were doing in relation to their draft position.  Well, here you go.  Due to a time crunch and space issue, I'll do the Top 20.  I think that will be more than enough to prove my point and show you that, "it's all in the hits."

     The following is a list of the Top 20 hitters taken in fantasy drafts as compiled by CBS Sportsline and Yahoo! Rankings.  I've used the standard 5 hitting categories for rotisserie baseball, opting to leave out OBP (some like that instead of AVG.) and strikeouts (some leagues penalize). 

     Not a bad list of players, huh? 

     But not everyone is living up to their draft spot.  Not yet atleast.  But for now, let's take those names that all the pitching fluffers will be so quick to point out:  David Wright, Josh Hamilton, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira, and Matt Holliday.  I'll even throw in Grady Sizemore and Lance Berkman, if you like since both their batting averages reside in the camode and Berkman hasn't so much sniffed a stolen base.

     Now before I continue, I just want to put one thing out there.  Not everyone on the table above had my endorsement going into this year.  If you go back to my web site, RotoBuzz.com, you'll see that I have never been a Josh Hamilton fan, have lamented over the slow starts of Teixeira, warned you against Holliday and his move to Oakland, said that Pedroia won't hit for the same power and that Berkman is, in fact, on the decline.  If you're asking me if I would take any of these guys over a top flight ace, then my answer is no.  That being said, I still stand by my opinion.

     We can now return to our regular broadcast...

     These five, maybe seven if you want to be a stickler, have all gotten off to slow starts and are probably driving their owners a little nuts.  The numbers aren't there and you're probably looking at all the guys you passed up that are finding success with every swing of the bat.  I'd be a little bummed to if I made an investment and was so prone to panic.

     But remember, folks -- it's only the first week of May.  There's still plenty of baseball still to go.  While your top flight starters only have about 25 more starts to go, on average, your hitters have (barring injury) more than 400 at bats still.  450 in most cases.  There's so much opportunity to bring those numbers back up.  More so than pitchers have.

     We all hoped Rollins would be a 20-40 guy at the least, but his current numbers are definitely keeping him on a much lower pace.  Am I worried?  Not really.  Rollins got off to a horrible start last year as he recovered from an injury, but still managed to swipe 47 bags last year.  Am I thumbing my nose at that?  Hell no.

     Mark Teixeira has a career April average that resides somewhere in the low .260's with minimal power results.  Concerned?  Nope.  In his career, he's plugged .300 or better the rest of the way, and we all know where his HR and RBI production will fall in.  The same goes for David Wright.  Remember his April last year?

     Yes, Holliday and Hamilton suck.  No question.  I have no defense for these guys, since I knew they would.  But do they have a solid opportunity to bring their totals up?  Definitely!  They each have a better shot at bringing their numbers up than Brandon Webb does....or even Cole Hamels.

     A hitter only needs 3 base hits every 10 at bats to start bringing his average back up.  If a guy finishes April with a .200 average in 80 AB, and then goes on to grab 3 hits every 10 AB, he'll finish with a .284 average in a 500 AB season.  And that right there is the bare minimum.  Anybody here have a problem with a .284 hitter that plugs 30 dingers or steals 40 bases?  I think not.  Think someone like Sizemore or Teixeira is capable of snagging more than the 3 hit minimum?  I think so.

     A pitcher has less opportunity to fix his horiffic April ratios and needs to be relatively close to lights out for his remaining 25 starts.  Not only lights out, but go atleast 7 innings each time as well.  How many pitchers do you know that are capable of that?  You don't think Lincecum or Santana is capapble of a bad day in June or July?  Come on now.

     Now let's talk quickly about category contribution.  With the exception of the 5 power hitters that have zero stolen bases so far, each of these hitters contributes to all 5 standard rotisserie categories.  Ever hear of the 5-tool player?  Yeah, that's these guys.  For the most part.  Do I care what kind of SBs Miguel Cabrera brings me?  No.  Of course not.  But he's still throwing in his contribution to the cause.

     The top hitters, with obviously a few exceptions, contribute to 4 or 5 categories across the board.  Yes there are the batting average ciphens like Howard, but for the most part, the top guys are all high average, high production players.  The top pitchers, on the other hand, give you only 3 categories.  Sometimes 4, but let's face facts -- the "wins" category has become so arbitrary these days due to the lack of complete games, that you're not guaranteed anything but the fact that a bullpen can blow it for you at any time.  Your pitchers can help keep your ratios down and give you strikeouts, but that's it.

     So which would you rather have?  A guy who contributes in 4 or 5 categories or a guy who helps you in 3?  If you're sitting there debating that question, then there's probably nothing I can say to change your opinion, and welcome an invitation to your league.

     Whether a guy is off to a slow start or not, I'm still standing by my opinion that, in your draft, pitching can wait.  I'd rather sit frustrated by Rollins and watch him start to light it up in late May than to worry about the fact that I used a second or third round choice on Webb and have no idea what I'm getting or when I'll even get it.

     You want to win your league?  Then say it like a mantra next year while you're preparing for your draft.  It's all in the hits!  It's all in the hits!

     Looking for who your next waiver wire choice should be?  Can't figure out which closer in waiting is worth your attention?  Just need a little fantasy advice?  Well then check out what's going on over at RotoBuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts, or comments, you can write to him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.