Around the Diamond

Drafting Closers

by Howard Bender

     One of the most highly contested topics amongst fantasy experts is what to do about drafting closers.  Some say it's a must and others will tell you to leave it alone.  Some will tell you that saves is a category you can easily punt and others will tell you that it makes no sense to get zero points in any category.  So which is it?  Should I draft a top flight closer early on or do I wait and just fill in relievers towards the end? For me, drafting a closer is not just about winning the saves category.  On the surface that may look like your closer's primary function, but if you dig a little deeper into the numbers, you'll see that they do so much more.

     In rotisserie baseball (and even head to head) two categories that become disastrous when you fall behind are ERA and WHIP.  When going into your draft, you're hopefully scouting guys that consistently have low ratios, but let's face facts -- no matter how well you draft, you're always going to have guys whose ratios are a little high for anyone's taste.  Even if you go in hoping to draft one of 2008's top 10 strikeout pitchers, you run a 40% chance of grabbing a guy whose WHIP is higher than 1.300.  Top 10 pitchers in wins?  A 28.6% chance you'll end up with a guy whose ERA sits well above a 3.50.

     Now those numbers might not seem too daunting now, but remember...those are the best chances you're going to get.  The further you delve into the player pool for starters, the harder it gets to find someone of quality whose ratios aren't going to kill you.  Unless you've sacrificed all of your offense to win the pitching categories, you're going to end up having more than just a few starters with some tough to swallow numbers.  And that's where drafting the closer fits in.

     Of the top 10 saves leaders in 2008, nine of them had an ERA below 3.40, and while 8 of them had a WHIP below 1.300, 6 of them were below 1.200 and 4 of those were below 1.000.  All of them threw for more than 60 innings.  But that's just the saves leaders.  Scattered beyond that were still guys like B.J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, and Brian Fuentes, all of whom had rock solid ratios.

     Having a top closer in your lineup is a fantastic ratio stabilizer.  If you draft successfully for the year, you're going to have a mix of starters on your roster.  You might have an ace or two in there, but generally there will be a healthy mix of decent guys with more than a few middle to back of the rotation help.  Your aces alone aren't going to keep your ratios down.  They're going to need the help.  So why not employ the help of a closer?  You'll get help in the saves category, you can add another 75 Ks to your total (only 90 starters had 100 Ks or more), and if you have a pitcher that throws 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, and a closer who throws 60 innings with a 2.00 ERA, the overall between them shoots down to a 3.91.

     Again, the numbers might not seem that significant right now, but watch the team that decides to punt the saves category.  Watch them as they hover in the lower end of the pack in the ratio categories and watch them spend most of their trade negotiating fishing for closers.  They need the quick fix help to recover and suddenly they realize that the closers are the only ones you can rely on to do so.

     But you have to act fast.  Not too fast, mind you, but I'd say a late 5th or early 6th round choice isn't so bad for a top guy.  Especially with the fact that a top, reliable guy isn't so easy to come by these days.  Premium closers are at...well....a premium.   It's becoming harder and harder to find a guy with the ability and the job security these days and to pass one up would be a mistake.  Just ask the guy who bargain shopped in the closers bin last year and ended up with C.J. Wilson, Joe Borowski or even Manny Corpas.

     Below is a list of closer's you should be targeting based on their ratios and job security.  Again, I'm not saying that you need to grab one of these guys immediately, but you'd be wise not to sleep on the position.  You'll thank me later from the top of your standings...

Top Tier

Mariano Rivera, NYY; Jonathan Papelbon, BOS; Joe Nathan, MIN; Francisco Rodriguez, NYM, Joakim Soria, KC

Second Tier

Brad Lidge, PHI; B.J. Ryan, TOR; Bobby Jenks, CHW; Jonathan Broxton, LAD; Jose Valverde, HOU; Carlos Marmol, CHC 

Still Passable

Francisco Cordero, CIN; Kerry Wood, CLE; Brian Wilson, SF; Brian Fuentes, LAA; Matt Capps, PIT; Heath Bell, SD; Frank Francisco, TEX

Shakey Ground

Joel Hanrahan, WAS; Chad Qualls, ARI; Trevor Hoffman, MIL; Mike Gonzalez, ATL; Huston Street, COL; Brandon Lyon, DET; Matt Lindstrom, FLA; Troy Percival, TB

Fighting for a Job

Joey Devine/Brad Ziegler, OAK; Jason Motte/Ryan Franklin/Chris Perez, STL; George Sherrill/Chris Ray, BAL; Chad Cordero/Roy Corcoran/Miguel Batista, SEA; Manny Corpas, COL; Kevin Gregg, CHC; Fernando Rodney, DET

For all the best pre-draft advice, insights and rankings, check out what's going on over at RotoBuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts, or comments, you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com