Fantasy : NFL schedule: Winners & Losers : Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5 teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that were not treated as well. I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that. There are a couple things to keep in mind: 1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division. I know Cleveland has a tough schedule as well. 14 of their 16 opponents are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule. What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules? I tried to pick teams from different divisions instead when breaking down the schedule. 2) I tried to give deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule. While one team may have a similar strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think that makes for a tougher schedule. By Derek Lofland.

Without further delay, here is my list:

5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker

1) Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule in the NFL. The Steelers face 8 playoff teams from 2007. They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a tiebreaker out of the playoffs. Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6) Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.

Thank God for the Bengals or there would be no easy games. In particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is brutal. The Steelers opponents winning percentage in 2007 was .598. That is toughest in the NFL. Their only opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore (2). When you consider that most people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in 2008. The Steelers did well in the draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008. However, they have no favors when it comes to the schedule.

2) Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs. They have the following stretch of games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11) Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.

That is 5 playoff teams in 7 weeks. Cleveland was a 10-game winner that was very busy in free agency. There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against New England. The winning percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much behind the Steelers. When you consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that division. While the Colts are still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to repeat in the AFC South.

3) Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth. Here is their schedule from Week 3 through 11. 3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6) at Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11) Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.

That is a lot of tough games. 5 of those 9 teams are playoff teams. Minnesota has added Jared Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13 games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago. New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this season. The only victory that would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home. The Packers’ opponents winning percentage in 2007 was .531. The Packers aren’t going to have much time to adjust to life without #4. They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6.

4) Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in their own division. Furthermore, the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in Samuel. Still, the Cowboys have a brutal stretch in the middle of the season. 8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.

That would be 6 playoff opponents in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007. The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007 and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach Thomas. They did what they needed to do to keep pace. However, they will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007, otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.

5) Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch where they play a bunch of playoff opponents. Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard. Still, the Seahawks opponents had a .477 winning percentage in 2007. Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some issues. 5) at NY Giants, 6) Green Bay, 7) at Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at Dallas, 14) New England.

The Seahawks have some nice games against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St. Louis (2), and San Francisco (2). Arizona is probably their most formidable opponent in the division. It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any lapses. This shouldn’t be like 2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10 weeks of the season. If the Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less forgiving.
5 Teams that Were Spared by the NFL Schedule Maker

1) New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft, but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387. Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets residing in their division. Still, here are their first 4 opponents: 1) Kansas City, 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San Francisco.

The only time they play 2007 playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13 and 14. There are only 4 playoff opponents out of 16 on their schedule. That is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the following season. I’m sure the NY Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their schedule. However, considering the season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a very favorable schedule. It is easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the Patriots’ way.

2) San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the Patriots. They play in a bad division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16 opponents on their schedule. Their first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5) at Miami.

The Chargers have a few tougher obstacles than the Patriots. They did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12. New Orleans could rebound from their dismal 2007 campaign. Overall, the Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too. Playing in the AFC West is a blessing in and of itself. Combined with 3 games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road than most.

3) New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008. Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11. 3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5) Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta, 11) at Kansas City.

Consider that there is only one playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix. The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in 2007. They play against the weak AFC West. The NFC North is a relative unknown in 2008. Who knows if Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will return to their ‘06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?

Furthermore, the Saints divisional leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their own. Tampa fans will remind you that it is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season. Still, most objective people will agree the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007. If New Orleans has fixed their defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule sets up nicely for them.

4) Arizona Cardinals -- I know, I know. People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over. Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less. But, when you look at this schedule, they should get off to a great start. Here is what they are looking at: 1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5) Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco.

That is exactly 2 playoff teams in their first 9 games. The overall schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when compared to other teams. They have to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games. They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New England, 17) Seattle. However, if the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild card spot come the end of the season.

5) Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their opponents won .551 of their games in 2007. Many people will not have them on the easy column. However, I go further than just looking at percentages. They get Green Bay on the road in Week 1. That is huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett Favre. They are retiring Favre’s number. Rodgers is going to be as nervous as he ever will be. What better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season divisional win on the road?

Second, they will not be playing any cold games. Here is their schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16) Atlanta, 17) NY Giants. That is huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.

Third, they don’t really have any stretches where they play multiple impossible games. I really like them to do well from Week 13-16. That is when teams are making their playoff push. Week 1 and 2 at Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough. They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in Week 10-12. Green Bay and Tampa Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this season. If that is your worst stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.

While the numbers suggest that Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored into that. Take out Green Bay’s record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is much more manageable. While the Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might think. The Vikings set up well to take an up-for-grabs NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South games.

What did you think of your team’s schedule for 2008? How do you think I broke down the schedule? Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving another team’s enough credit? Let me know your thoughts.
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